www.nhc.noaa.gov - National Hurricane Center Public Advisory #30- Isla Mujeres News

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Click this link for real time loop of last 24 hours. You can see the eye of Wilma as a Cat. 4 pass straight over the top 3rd of Cozumel and straight into Playa del Carmen with an eye 35 miles across. Isla Mujeres is that black dot along the coast before the inlet at the top. It is under the most purple (bad bad rainfall) in the north. My concern is that big tail as the hurricane passes which translates into more wind, rain and whipping sea. You can see the system forming down below over Puerto Rico where it is now. This link from U. of Wisconsin - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irnhc/g8irnhcjava.html
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PUBLIC ADVISORY #30
00
WTNT34 KNHC 222054
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR
DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST... ABOUT 25 MILES... 40
KM NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
000
WTNT44 KNHC 222109
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF
ABOUT 2 KT. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT
WAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST
WILMA WILL ACCELERATE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL
SPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF
THE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD
IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER
TODAY. THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A
DROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE
BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
WILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE
GFDL. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS
WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY
TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS
IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.4N 87.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL